Russia – Georgian War : NATO incites the Belligerent Beast

“You can have power over people as long as you don’t take everything away from them. But when you’ve robbed a man of everything, he’s no longer in your power” – Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn

Introduction

On 8th August 2008, when the whole world was engrossed with Beijing Olympics Opening Ceremony, Russia striked war on Georgia that would last for 5 days.  Let me try to explain what irated Russia to strike its neighbour and the significance of this event on the International front.

Caucasia

Caucasia comprises of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Southern Russia, along with disputed territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Abkhazia and South Ossetia,  the breakaway province of Georgia, is openly supported by Russia. NATO works very closely with Georgia and infact during the 2008 Bachurest Summit NATO promised Georgia of its membership.

On 7th August 2008, Georgia declared a unilateral ceasefire after a series of clashes with South Ossetian rebels. But within five hours of ceasefire Georgia resumed use of force and blamed South Ossetia for provoking the attack. Georgia lead an offensive land operation in the Tskhinvali region. Russia responded with a full scale attack on Georgia. Russia was determined to occupy South Ossetia and Abkhazia. After defeating Georgia, Russia recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent.

Rising Differences Between Russia & West

For years Russia has been gradually and mutedly regaining its strength by increasing Oil Export in terms of volume and better terms of trade. The dormant bear has suddenly stood up roaring in response to the provocative hunter. It has given a well timed and apt response to NATO. It is difficult to comprehend the decision of NATO to promise membership to Georgia. NATO clearly challenged Russia by extending its influence upto Russia’s own backyard. (I dont question Georgia’s pro US stand but they should desist from inciting the Monster nextdoor) Russia would take every measure to prevent NATO from erecting Anti-Ballistic Missile close to its border. Its not about security alone, but also about oil and gas pipeline politics. Georgia is an important pipeline route for US’ access to Caspian energy reserves. Russia, on its part, cannot afford to loose its dominance on energy reserves in the region.

An event germane to this topic - Kosovo gained independence from Serbia earlier this year. It was a setback to Russia and may be South Ossetia was the opportunity Russia was looking for since then.

Russia has been building up its influence in middle east since past few years. Russia is assisting Iran in building a nuclear power plant at Bushehr and West countries have very strong objection to this they fear Iran is trying to acquire nuclear weapons. Earlier, Russia thwarted US attempt to impose additional sactions on Iran on the nuclear weapons issue. Israel has been selling arms and combat training to Georgia which were used by Georgia against Russia during the war and this has infuriated Russia. On the other hand, Israel blamed Russia of supplying intelligence data regarding Israel to Syria which had led to the setback of Israel forces against Hizbollah in 2006.  As a retaliation to Israel’s weapon supply to Georgia, Russia has decided to supply weapons to Syria and accelerate the completion of Nuclear facility in Iran. Moreover, Russia and Venezuela would be conducting joint naval exercise later this year.

Conclusion

Russia is certainly determined to take on the NATO which has very few options at the moment. Europe depends on Russia for its energy needs. Moreover, Russia’s coperation is needed to resolve issues of global concern such as Non Proliferation, Terrorism, Global Warming. As a result, for the timebeing NATO would not do anything to further alienate Russia. They would wait until they find another scapegoat like Georgia. In a way, small countries like Georgia are a means to measure the balance of power between Giant Countries. The Superpowers dont mind sacrificing these minor allies in proxy wars to test the opponents heat.

The Georgian war has certainly tilted the balance towards a bipolar equation. The US hegemony has taken a minor beating. The Bipolar equation is more favorable for the world. Otherwise when US says – “You are either with us or against us”, it would mean “You are either with us or You are the next Iraq and get ready to be doomed for reasons that are purely figment of our imagination” ( WMD? ). I hope the bipolar world would reduce the number of wars as the anti-US countries would be able to align under Russia and get an opportunity to defend their stand. (We dont want US-Iran, US-Syria war which ends up like Iraq)

PS: I feel sad for the civilian population of Georgia & South Ossetia who were impacted by this war. I regret if any of my views are disturbing to the readers. I would appreciate if you point out any discrepancy in the article in terms of factual data.