“In the future, scientists will learn how to convert stupidity into clean fuel.”
Prediction #16, The Dilbert Future , 1997, Scott Adams.
In my 24 years of lifespan I have already witnessed two bubbles – DotCom and Housing.These bubbles are epitome of human greediness. Greed is intrinsic attribute of human psychology. But greed is important as it drives stupendous growth and development.
Lets focus on the topic. For past couple of weeks I have been trying hard to answer this -“Where is the Next BUBBLE ?”. Nobody can answer this accurately but there is something obvious happening – maybe a bubble in the making?
‘Outsourcing’ was the buzzword for past 5-6 years. ‘Green’ is the latest buzz.The CEO’s of major IT companies have started to use the word ‘Green’ religiously (IBM, Dell, HP, Google). They see a green future in ‘Green’. Not that climate has been worrying them but it is about growth & operating costs. Eight years back nobody considered power efficiency as a bottleneck for Servers. With time, Data Centers grew rapidly and companies like Google would now have whole building occupied by Servers sucking huge amount of energy. The energy spending is deterring companies from expanding the data centers. The writing is on the wall – to sustain data center expansion either energy prices go down or energy consumption is nailed down.
IT is not the only business engaged in ‘Green’ rhetoric. Companies like GE, Toyota, BP too are enthusiastically jumping for ‘Green’. The energy demands have gone up and business foresees increasing demand for energy efficient products. This applies to all products – Industrial Machinery, Cars, Computers and Peripherals, Consumer Electronics.GE is already seeing ‘green’ results in China where the Wind Turbine business did well. In the next decade both China and India are set to embrace green energy in a big way. Chinese government has been giving unprecedented push for renewable energy sources. With the Indo-US Nuclear deal India would go big on nuclear energy. Wind, Solar, Hydrogen, Ethanol and Nuclear are seen as the next drivers for demand & growth.
The demand for energy efficient products would certainly increase. Companies have been spending huge on Research over Energy Efficiency for past few years. There would be huge pressure on Companies to en-cash the intellectual asset developed through this research. When the economy comes back to shape, the spiralling oil prices would further push the demand for power efficient goods. But, as usual, the supply would exceed the demand at some point. The political clout of businessmen would ensure favorable legislation to further their market. The greed to en-cash the research spending would throw plethora of unwanted products into the market. They would cross the boundaries and create an insane market. The ambitious investors and blindly optimistic suppliers would create another bubble. (Trust me, I am not against bubbles. Conceptually it is based on Darwin’s evolution theory – survival of the fittest. The shrewd make money and the gullible loose it all. :) )